Latinas Could Decide the 2024 Election—and Might Give Trump a Victory | Opinion
August 1, 2024
By Judy Pino
America is diversifying. Hispanic women are expected to become 30 percent of the total female population of the United States by 2060, while the non-Hispanic white female population is expected to drop to 43 percent. This evolving political landscape suggests that both parties will need to compete vigorously for Latina votes if they want to win elections and enact their policy agendas for our increasingly diverse country.
Consider the fact that the Hispanic demographic is generally considered the most diverse voting bloc in the country, covering a variety of ethnic and cultural identities with African, Asian, European, and indigenous ancestry.
Making the issue even more urgent, women across all racial and ethnic groups have consistently turned out to vote in higher numbers than men in every presidential election since 1980. 68 percent of women eligible to vote reported voting in the 2020 presidential election—compared to 65 percent of eligible men. In fact, the total number of female voters has exceeded that of men in every presidential election since 1964.
And in 2024, Hispanic voters are poised to make a bigger impact than ever before. At least 17.5 million Latino voters are expected to cast ballots; that’s over one out of every 10 votes.
Latinas register and vote in larger numbers than Hispanic men at a turnout rate of around 56 percent in the 2020 election, compared to 51 percent of Hispanic men. Latinas are swayed by issues that affect their friends, families, and communities and tend to vote based on the influence of local leaders, community norms, or specific regional issues, even if they haven’t in the past.
The bigger challenge for candidates running for office is that Hispanic voters don’t consistently align with either ideological camp.
Though there are more registered Latino Democrats, Latino Republicans say they’re more likely to vote this year than Latino Democrats. Latinas may also be drawn to the Republican Party’s emphasis on lower taxes, less regulation, and freedom-based pro-business policies, which Latinas feel provide more opportunities for small businesses.
For Latinas, inflation and the economy are the number one issues, followed by illegal immigration and border security.
A majority of Hispanics agree the country is on the wrong track and believe the American Dream will be harder for the next generation to achieve. Concerns about crime and public safety can influence Latina voters who support the Republican Party’s strong stance on law and order, policing, and criminal justice policies.
Immigration is also a critical issue for many Latinas; new studies show Democrats have lost the confidence of many Hispanics on immigration policy.
Conservative views on cultural and social issues such as traditional family values, religious freedom, and opposition to abortion may resonate with some Latinas. The Republican Party’s stance on these issues aligns with the personal beliefs of certain segments within the Latina community, but that is changing; 62 percent of Latinos now believe abortion should be legal in all or most cases compared to 20 years ago, when most Hispanics said they opposed abortion rights by a nearly two-to-one margin.
While a majority of Latinas lean Democratic, there was a notable shift among them towards the Republican Party so far in the 2024 elections.
The number of eligible Hispanic voters has increased from 32.3 million in 2020 to a projected 36.2 million in 2024, though not all eligible voters are registered to vote. Young Latina voters especially are a dynamic and influential group within the U.S. electorate; 29 percent of Latinos are under 18, compared with 22 percent of the U.S. overall.
The evolving demographic landscape underscores the increasing significance of Latina voters in shaping electoral outcomes, as they are projected to play a pivotal role in the upcoming elections, particularly given their growing numbers and shifting political affiliations. As both major parties vie for their support, understanding the unique concerns and values of Latina voters will be essential for candidates aiming to resonate with this diverse and influential electorate.
Judy Pino is an advisor on Hispanic issues and a Spanish-language spokesperson for Independent Women’s Voice (iwv.org) and The LIBRE Initiative.
The views expressed in this article are the writer’s own.